JANUS SIGNAL

Welcome to this week's signal.

In 2026, building for stability is a dangerous illusion. The technology cycles are simply too fast for rigid plans. The goal is no longer just Resilience (surviving the crash), but Antifragility, getting stronger because of it.

Fragile startups break under volatility; antifragile startups feed on it. They don't just endure algorithm changes or funding dips; they convert shock into market share. This issue explores how to architect a company that doesn't just survive chaos, but requires it to grow.

Spotlight Theme

The Antifragile Mindset: Gaining From Disorder

Why playing it safe is the riskiest move you can make in 2026.

Main Story:

In the startup ecosystem, we are taught to eliminate risk. However, Nassim Taleb, the scholar who coined the term antifragile, warns that systems which are too optimized become fragile. They break under the slightest stress. Optimization itself isn’t the enemy, it’s essential. The problem begins when optimization goes too far, stripping away flexibility and resilience, and turning strength into vulnerability.

In 2026, the winning founders structure their companies to benefit from volatility. Instead of a single massive bet, the antifragile founder places many small low-cost experiments to gather data. The shift is mental as much as it is operational. You must move from trying to be right to building a business that strengthens under pressure.

Zoom In:

Efficiency works in a vacuum, but redundancy works in the real world. Modern business logic dictates removing all excess to save money, but this creates fragility. A fragile startup relies on one efficient channel (like paid ads) and dies when the algorithm changes. An antifragile startup accepts the inefficiency of managing diverse channels because it ensures survival. By keeping cash reserves and avoiding debt, founders buy themselves the most valuable asset in a crisis, time.

By The Numbers:

The Data Behind Survival in Chaos

• 57% of Fortune 500 companies were founded during a recession or bear market.

• 50% higher returns were achieved by resilient companies compared to peers during the last major financial crisis.

• 29% of startups fail primarily due to running out of cash, a direct symptom of financial fragility.

Sources: Kauffman Foundation, McKinsey, MIT Sloan

These data show that structural rigidity is a greater threat than market volatility.

What stands out:

Rippling’s Capital Maneuver During the SVB Crisis

Real Founder: Parker Conrad — The Architect of Resilience

When Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March 2023, Rippling faced a severe operational and liquidity risk. Millions in client payroll funds were trapped in frozen accounts. Instead of waiting for regulatory intervention, Conrad and his team executed a rapid strategic pivot.

They worked to switch payment rails to J.P. Morgan and, crucially, secured a rapid $500 million Series E financing to ensure liquidity and maintain payroll continuity for customers.

What makes them stand out:

This move exemplifies antifragility in a systemic crisis. While fragile companies paused operations, Rippling absorbed the shock. By acting decisively to capitalize the business during a liquidity crunch, they positioned themselves as a more reliable operational layer than the underlying banking infrastructure itself.

They converted a market-wide failure into a demonstration of institutional strength.

Signal from the data:

The speed of the capital injection was the differentiator. The $500 million round, led by Greenoaks Capital, was closed in the immediate aftermath of the bank's closure. This liquidity allowed them to process stalled payments, helping them maintain their $11.25 billion valuation and customer trust at a time when the broader tech sector was paralyzed by uncertainty.

Global impact:

Rippling proved that for mission-critical B2B platforms, financial engineering is as vital as software engineering. They established a new precedent where top-tier SaaS providers are expected to act as resilient financial backstops for their clients during systemic outages.

Tools That Actually Help

Mercury: Banking Without a Single Point of Failure

After the banking crisis, founders learned that "safe" is a relative term. Mercury offers Vault, which provides up to $5M in FDIC insurance by distributing funds across a network of banks. For an antifragile founder, this creates structural financial safety by reducing single-bank exposure, helping ensure operational continuity even during institutional failures.

Deel: Geographic Antifragility

Relying on a single talent market makes a startup fragile to local wage inflation or talent shortages. Deel allows startups to hire, pay, and manage contractors and employees in over 150 countries instantly. This enables a decentralized team structure, allowing founders to access the best talent globally and keep overhead flexible, transforming the workforce from a fixed liability into a dynamic asset.

Clay: Never Run Out of Leads

Relying on one expensive marketing channel makes a startup fragile. Clay is a data enrichment tool that leverages dozens of data sources to find creative ways to reach potential customers. It allows you to build diversified, automated outbound campaigns. If one lead source dries up, Clay helps you instantly pivot to a new segment,

Founders’ Radar

Demystifying Your Cap Table: A Founder’s Guide to Ownership and Equity

Join us for an exclusive live webinar on Wednesday, February 18, 2026, focused on the critical mechanics of startup ownership and fundraising strategy.

Haley Kopp, a corporate lawyer with a unique engineering background in life sciences and medical devices, will lead the session. With deep expertise in venture capital financings and M&A, Haley brings a practical, analytical approach to solving complex business issues, helping early-stage companies navigate the legal landscape with clarity.

In this session, hosted by JANUS , we will cover:

• Cap Table Fundamentals: How to read, understand, and structure your capitalization table correctly from day one.

• Equity Allocation: Navigating how different funding rounds impact ownership and understanding the mechanics of dilution.

• Strategic Defense: Identifying common pitfalls founders make and learning how to protect your vision and stake during negotiations.

Whether you are preparing for your first pre-seed raise or managing multiple investors, this is a unique opportunity to get practical legal advice in a live Q&A format.

When: Wednesday, February 18, 2026 | 12:00 PM PDT Where: Google Meet (Online) Register Here

ICYMI (In Case You Missed It)

Slush 2025 Recap: The Rise of Deep Tech Conversations

The world’s most founder-focused event, Slush, took place in Helsinki in late November 2025, bringing together over 13,000 founders, investors, and ecosystem partners. The event continued its tradition of highlighting tangible innovation, with a marked emphasis this year on Deep Tech and building sustainable business models.

Highlights:

• Beyond Pure Software: While AI remained a key topic, the spotlight expanded significantly to Deep Tech solutions, startups tackling physical challenges in energy, health, and new materials. The conversations centered on how technology can solve structural problems rather than just digital conveniences.

• Resilience Over Hype: The prevailing sentiment among investors and founders was a shift away from growth at all costs. Panels and discussions focused heavily on unit economics, profitability, and building companies designed to weather economic volatility.

• Global Connectivity: The event served as a critical bridge, connecting Nordic and European innovation hubs with global capital, reinforcing the importance of cross-border collaboration in building robust, scalable companies.

Spotlight: Alireza Boloorchi, CEO and Founder of Catch Up AI

In this edition of JANUS SIGNAL, we spotlight a visionary voice shaping the future of innovation, Alireza Boloorchi, a seasoned tech leader and immigrant entrepreneur whose journey embodies resilience, boldness, and transformation.

Alireza’s story is one of evolution, from a computer science PhD student to a pioneering leader in AI-driven organizational transformation. As the CEO and founder of Catch Up AI, his work centers on flattening company hierarchies and redefining how human capital aligns with business goals in the AI era.

From Immigrant Engineer to AI Innovator

Alireza came to the U.S. to pursue graduate studies and quickly navigated a path through engineering to executive leadership roles at major companies like JPMorgan Chase and Age of Learning, where he served as Vice President of the Center of Excellence in AI. For the past few years, his passion has focused on Catch Up AI, a startup revolutionizing organizational structures by removing the need for middle management and enabling technical leadership to thrive.

Flattening Hierarchies: The AI Advantage

Traditional companies rely heavily on middle management to align teams with company goals, communicate top-down directives, and manage performance. Alireza highlights a critical pain point: “One person cannot manage a thousand people effectively. This is why hierarchies exist.”

But AI changes the game. According to Alireza:

“With AI, you can remove middle management by embedding leadership mindset and alignment into the technology itself. AI can provide personalized coaching and direction to every individual contributor, enabling them to work in sync with organizational goals without the layers of human managers.”

This shift not only streamlines operations but also democratizes leadership, empowering individuals with tailored guidance and accelerating company agility.

The Entrepreneurial Leap: Embracing Uncertainty

Despite a successful corporate career with stability and comfort, Alireza chose to embrace the uncertainties of entrepreneurship, a path familiar to many first-generation immigrants. He reflects on this bold decision:

“Many immigrants experience repeated cycles of uncertainty. After years of learning from remarkable leaders who built companies from zero to a trillion dollars, I realized I didn’t want to be bored anymore. With generative AI emerging, the possibility of flattening organizations became real, and I wanted to be part of that revolution.”

The entrepreneurial journey, he says, is “a roller coaster of highs and lows, but it’s fun and fulfilling.”

Advice to His Younger Self
Reflecting on his path, Alireza shares two key pieces of advice for aspiring innovators:

Take More Risks Early:
“When you’re young, you have fewer responsibilities and more capacity to risk and learn from failures. Use that time wisely.”

Develop T-Shaped Skills:
“Go deep in one area but also build a broad base of knowledge. This flexibility helps you pivot quickly and see opportunities from different perspectives.”

Supporting Startups in the AI Era
When asked what kind of support would have helped him most at the start of his entrepreneurial journey, Alireza emphasized the value of:

• Access to targeted mentorship that understands both AI technologies and organizational dynamics,
  

• Strategic connections to incubators and accelerators focused on leadership innovation,
  

• Resources for navigating the unique challenges faced by immigrant founders.
  

Closing Thoughts

Alireza Boloorchi’s vision with Catch Up AI is not just about technology, it’s about reshaping how people work together in the 21st century. His journey reminds us that innovation is as much about leadership and mindset as it is about tools and algorithms.

We at Janus Innovation Hub are proud to spotlight his story and invite our community to reflect on how AI can empower us all to lead more effectively, collaboratively, and boldly.

For more inspiring stories and insights from pioneers like Alireza, stay tuned to JANUS SIGNAL.

Reality Check: The Burn Multiple is the New Credit Score

In 2026, investors have stopped funding "growth at all costs." The new north star is the Burn Multiple (efficiency of spend).

The Efficiency Gap: Data from Q4 2025 reveals a dangerous reality: The median Series A AI startup is currently spending $5 to generate just $1 of new revenue. Startups with a Burn Multiple below 1.5x are seeing premium valuations, while those above 2.0x are facing funding freezes.

Where the Money Goes: Capital distribution has become highly unequal. 58% of total VC funding in North America is now flowing exclusively into AI, leaving just 42% for all other sectors combined. This creates a massive liquidity crunch for non-AI founders.

The Verdict: You cannot fundraise your way out of bad economics. The market message is clear: "Prove you can survive without us, and we will give you money."

What We’re Tracking: The Shift from Optimized to Unkillable

At JANUS, we are observing a behavioral shift where the strongest founders are no longer optimizing for maximum efficiency, but architecting for maximum survival. They are building systems that can absorb shock rather than shatter.

Highlights:

• Algorithmic Sovereignty: We are seeing startups decouple from single-model dependency. Instead of building solely on OpenAI, founders are designing model-agnostic infrastructures to switch providers instantly if costs spike or quality drops.

• Default Alive State: The goalpost has moved from next round funding to indefinite runway. Founders are prioritizing breakeven economics early, treating venture capital as an accelerant, not oxygen.

• Decentralized Decision Velocity: High-performing teams are removing approval layers. By empowering frontline employees to make decisions, these startups react to market volatility faster than centralized competitors.

• Aggressive Redundancy: Efficiency hates redundancy, but survival requires it. We track founders who deliberately maintain multiple banking partners and diverse customer acquisition channels to eliminate single points of failure.

• The Cockroach Mindset: A cultural pivot where boring survival traits, frugality, adaptability, and grit are valued higher than vanity metrics or hype cycles.

Crack This!

Answer to the last riddle: "No"

Did you guess it right?

I am the most expensive currency you have
Yet I cost nothing to print
Founders guard me, Investors demand me
And employees work for the promise of me.
What am I?

Closer Thought:

Stability is a dangerous illusion. The goal isn't to build a company that never changes, but one that evolves faster than the world around it. Don't hide from the stress. Use it as fuel to grow stronger. Keep evolving,

— Team JANUS

P.S. Pressure creates diamonds, but it also bursts pipes. Your design determines which one you become.